Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
