Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".