Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.